Early Predictors of Racial Disparities in Criminal Justice Involvement

Abstract

We examine ten cohorts of male eighth graders in public schools in Chicago, IL: 1995-2004. We find that composite measures of math achievement, reading achievement, and neighborhood SES during elementary school are strong predictors of future felony arraignment and incarceration, even among students of the same race who attend the same school. Nonetheless, elementary achievement and early SES account for less than half of Black versus non-Black disparities in these outcomes. Value-added measures of eighth grade school quality suggest that schools may reduce criminal justice involvement by better preparing students for the non-cognitive demands of high school.

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