Expected Points Above Average: A Novel NBA Player Metric Based on Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling

23 Pages Posted: 17 May 2024 Last revised: 20 May 2024

See all articles by Ryan Elmore

Ryan Elmore

University of Denver - Daniels College of Business

Benjamin Williams

University of Denver - Daniels College of Business

Erin Schliep

North Carolina State University

Bailey Fosdick

University of Colorado, Aurora - Colorado School of Public Health

Date Written: May 16, 2024

Abstract

Team and player evaluation in professional sport is extremely important given the financial implications of success/failure. It is especially critical to identify and retain elite shooters in the National Basketball Association (NBA), one of the premier basketball leagues worldwide because the ultimate goal of the game is to score more points than one's opponent. To this end we propose two novel basketball metrics: ``expected points'' for team-based comparisons and ``expected points above average (EPAA)'' as a player-evaluation tool. Both metrics leverage posterior samples from Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to cluster teams and players based on their shooting propensities and abilities. We illustrate the concepts for the top 100 shot takers over the last decade and offer our metric as an additional metric for evaluating players.

Keywords: Sports Analytics, Basketball, Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling

Suggested Citation

Elmore, Ryan and Williams, Benjamin and Schliep, Erin and Fosdick, Bailey, Expected Points Above Average: A Novel NBA Player Metric Based on Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling (May 16, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4831365

Ryan Elmore (Contact Author)

University of Denver - Daniels College of Business ( email )

2101 S. University Blvd.
Denver, CO 80208
United States

Benjamin Williams

University of Denver - Daniels College of Business ( email )

2101 S. University Blvd.
Denver, CO 80208
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.statswithben.com

Erin Schliep

North Carolina State University ( email )

Hillsborough Street
Raleigh, NC 27695
United States

Bailey Fosdick

University of Colorado, Aurora - Colorado School of Public Health ( email )

United States

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