Download This Paper
Preprints with The Lancet is a collaboration between The Lancet Group of journals and SSRN to facilitate the open sharing of preprints for early engagement, community comment, and collaboration. Preprints available here are not Lancet publications or necessarily under review with a Lancet journal. These preprints are early-stage research papers that have not been peer-reviewed. The usual SSRN checks and a Lancet-specific check for appropriateness and transparency have been applied. The findings should not be used for clinical or public health decision-making or presented without highlighting these facts. For more information, please see the FAQs.
Fruit, Vegetables and Discretionary Food Intake in Australian Adults: Past Trends and Predicted Progress Towards Population Preventive Health Targets for 2030
17 Pages Posted: 20 May 2024
More...Abstract
Background: Unhealthy diet is an important risk factor for obesity and chronic disease. In Australia, ‘improving access to and the consumption of a healthy diet’ is a focus in the National Preventive Health Strategy to improve the health of all Australians, with targets including (1) increasing fruit consumption to an average of 2 serves per day; (2) increasing vegetables to an average 5 serves per day; (3) reducing discretionary foods from >30% to <20% of total energy by 2030. However, no modelling is available to assess whether Australia can reach these targets.
Methods: This study used data from a cross-sectional online survey of Australian adults. Self-reported intake of fruit, vegetables, and discretionary foods were available. Between 2015 and 2023 the survey had been commenced 345,762 times, with 275,170 responses valid after cleaning. Dietary intake was modelled for sex and four age groups, and forecasted towards 2030 using a gamma generalised linear model.
Findings: By 2030, fruit intake is predicted to decrease by 9[[EQUATION]]7%, discretionary food intake predicted to increase by 18[[EQUATION]]3%, and vegetable intake predicted to remain stable (but well short of National targets). Trends for fruit and discretionary foods were consistent across population subgroups, except 18-30 year-olds where an increase in fruit is predicted. Vegetable intake is predicted to decrease for females and adults aged over 30 years, but increase for males and adults 18-30 years.
Interpretation: Without significant intervention, it will be difficult for Australians to meet the healthy diet targets outlined in the National Preventive Health Strategy.
Funding: No external funding to declare.
Declaration of Interest: We declare no competing interests.
Ethical Approval: This study was approved by the CSIRO Health and Medical Human Research Ethics Committee Low Risk Review Panel (LR 29/2016).
Keywords: Fruit, Vegetables: Discretionary food, Modelling, Dietary trends, Australia
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation