Sensitivity Bias in the Attitudes towards Lowering the Voting Age

Abstract

Can individuals express their opinions on youth suffrage without hesitation when asked directly? This study investigates sensitivity bias in attitudes toward youth suffrage and explores the determinants of this bias through two experimental studies in Japan. The results of Study 1 (N=4,501) conducted in 2020 found that the rate of disagreement with the suffrage for 18-year-olds is underestimated, and young voters are likely to hesitate to express their true opinions when asked directly. This tendency among young Japanese voters was confirmed in the pre-registered Study 2 (N=1,500) conducted in 2024. The results of exploratory analyses in Study 2 indicated that low internal efficacy may cause this sensitivity bias, while our hypothesis that low self- esteem among young voters generates this tendency was not supported. This study contributes to the understanding of sensitivity bias in public opinion research, particularly in the context of youth suffrage.

Keywords: sensitivity bias, lowering the voting age, youth suffrage, list experiment, self-esteem, political efficacy