Prescriptive Approach for Transition Risk Management of Elderly Home Care: Application of Markov Chains

20 Pages Posted: 30 May 2024

See all articles by Mika Immonen

Mika Immonen

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Aleksi Harju

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Jukka Hallikas

LUT University

Jouni Koivuniemi

Lappeenranta University of Technology

Abstract

This paper presents a prescriptive Markov chain modelling method for transition assessment for non-regular care patients amongst a population aged 60–80 years. We apply patient contact data to establish marker points for both early causes and late outcomes of health conditions which reflect immediate care needs and reveal trigger points for patient transitions from non-regular to regular home care. The paper connects patient journey modelling to managing service capacity under stochastic demand. This study models the emergence of capacity constraints, influenced by transitions, through stochastic processes using patient contact data from emergency healthcare logs. The data comprise approximately 13,943 customer journeys covering 83 contact types, of which 530 lead to the start of a regular home care period. The data are drawn from registers of a Finnish regional public healthcare provider. The empirical analysis assesses patient contact points by occurrence, position in care path and potential effects that improve the prediction capability of healthcare providers. This paper applies Markov chains for emergency care patient journeys to anticipate service capacity risks related to the transition of patients to home care. Markov chain analysis can recognise early indicators in the context of non-regular care. Here, positional and repetitiveness measures of contact labels form measures to anticipate the potential of patient transitions and associated risks. By highlighting potential shifts in patient transitions, the proposed model guides stakeholders in allocating resources optimally, ensuring that care transitions are managed effectively in line with changing needs.

Keywords: Markov chains, Risk Management, emergency care, elderly care, prescriptive modelling, health records

Suggested Citation

Immonen, Mika and Harju, Aleksi and Hallikas, Jukka and Koivuniemi, Jouni, Prescriptive Approach for Transition Risk Management of Elderly Home Care: Application of Markov Chains. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4840692 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4840692

Mika Immonen (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Aleksi Harju

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Jukka Hallikas

LUT University ( email )

Jouni Koivuniemi

Lappeenranta University of Technology ( email )

Lappeenranta
Finland

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