A Web-Based Decision-Support System for Arctic Oil Spills Impacts Assessment

Abstract

This paper proposes the development of a web-based decision support system using Bayesian theory. The focus is to enhance the estimation of the impact of oil spills in the Arctic in terms of social, environmental, and economic implications. Literature about social impacts that affect indigenous Arctic communities, environment, and economies of the involved regions have been consulted to obtain relevant data. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the proposed model is presented. The model has been applied to simulate the Siberian oil spill and the results are found close to the observed data. Minor deviations are found in the case of the Tug Powhaten oil spill, a small-scale spill. A web-based approach has been adopted to begin coding the model into software for easy operationalization and use. This will also provide accessibility to assemble large body of information for better modeling and simulation of future oil spills.

Keywords: Arctic oil-spill impact, cost assignment to oil spill impact, social impact of oil spills, Bayesian network, influence diagram, decision support system