CBDC and the Banking System

Abstract

This paper describes the role of central bank and commercial bank money in a modern monetary system and the possible implications of the introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) for the banking system and the economy as a whole. The analysis shows that the impact of a CBDC depends on a number of design choices and on how credit institutions re-optimize their balance sheets in response to the outflow of deposits caused by the substitution of private money with public digital money. We provide a set of illustrative simulations on the impact of a CBDC on the funding structure and profitability of credit institutions using data on Italian banks between June 2021 and March 2023. The analysis suggests that the overall impact on banks' funding could be manageable in the presence of individual holding limits and in an environment characterized by ample liquidity and stable funding for credit institutions. The cost of covering the reduction of deposits would be relatively higher for intermediaries with low excess reserves and for those that may need to issue long-term liabilities to maintain stable funding levels above regulatory requirements.

Keywords: central bank digital currency, monetary policy, financial stability, banks, money

JEL Classification: E41, E42, E43, E44, E51, E58, G21