Advancing from Adaptation to Resilience Pathways: Perspectives from the Conceptual Framework to Key Insights

Abstract

The extent and timescale of climate change impacts remain uncertain, including global temperature increase, sea level rise, and more frequent and intense extreme events. Uncertainties are compounded by cascading effects. Nevertheless, decision-makers must take action. Adaptation pathways, an approach for developing dynamic adaptive policymaking, are considered suitable for planning urban or regional climate change adaptation. This article emphasizes the need to transition from adaptation to Resilience Pathways, addressing both slow-onset climate change impacts and disaster risks. It examines the characteristics of Adaptation Pathways, like thresholds and tipping points, performance assessments, and visual representations, to incorporate sudden extremes and develop Resilience Pathways. The article discusses three key questions for Resilience Pathway development and implementation: (i) integrating Resilience Pathways into land use, spatial, and urban planning policies, (ii) determining thresholds and tipping points for stakeholder-led Resilience Pathways, and (iii) if Resilience Pathways can facilitate learning, knowledge sharing, and vision formulation as well as risk reduction.

Keywords: Decision support, resilience, climate change adaptation, disaster risk management, Adaptive Policy Making, uncertainty