Maghreb's Renewable Power Future for Climate Mitigation: Insights from the Times-Mage Model

Abstract

The future evolution of the power sector in Maghreb countries depends on implementing Nationally Determined Contributions and Low-Emission Development Strategies. This study uses the TIMES paradigm (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) to analyse the power sector transition in Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria from 2018 to 2050. It assesses the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of renewable energy targets and explores the feasibility of full decarbonization by 2050. Results show that while 2030 capacities align with renewable targets, long-term goals need optimistic capacity factors. By 2050, Morocco and Tunisia show a 5% discrepancy compared to policy goals. Algeria could exceed its renewable goal, increasing from 27% to 46%. Modelling results indicate 18% lower electricity costs than national plans, but full decarbonization requires significant upfront investments.

Keywords: Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, power system, energy system modelling, renewable energy sources, 100% renewable electricity. nationally determined contribution (NDC), Long-term low-emission development pathways (LT-LEDS)