Maghreb's Renewable Power Future for Climate Mitigation: Insights from the Times-Mage Model

51 Pages Posted: 10 Jun 2024

See all articles by yasmine AYED

yasmine AYED

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Patricia Fortes

NOVA University of Lisbon

Rafat Al Afif

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Abstract

The future evolution of the power sector in Maghreb countries depends on implementing Nationally Determined Contributions and Low-Emission Development Strategies. This study uses the TIMES paradigm (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) to analyse the power sector transition in Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria from 2018 to 2050. It assesses the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of renewable energy targets and explores the feasibility of full decarbonization by 2050. Results show that while 2030 capacities align with renewable targets, long-term goals need optimistic capacity factors. By 2050, Morocco and Tunisia show a 5% discrepancy compared to policy goals. Algeria could exceed its renewable goal, increasing from 27% to 46%. Modelling results indicate 18% lower electricity costs than national plans, but full decarbonization requires significant upfront investments.

Keywords: Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, power system, energy system modelling, renewable energy sources, 100% renewable electricity. nationally determined contribution (NDC), Long-term low-emission development pathways (LT-LEDS)

Suggested Citation

AYED, yasmine and Fortes, Patricia and Al Afif, Rafat, Maghreb's Renewable Power Future for Climate Mitigation: Insights from the Times-Mage Model. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4860033 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4860033

Yasmine AYED (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Patricia Fortes

NOVA University of Lisbon ( email )

Rafat Al Afif

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

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