Propaganda to a Cynical Audience *

Abstract

Using a model, I explain why authoritarian propaganda makes egregiously false statements that are easily verifiable to be false. I assume two news outlets that report on a hidden state of the world, motivated by the ex-post beliefs of the audience about the state of the world. Having one's report observed as false by a cynical audience reinforces its beliefs that "everybody lies" and reduces the credibility of the report made by the competing outlet. With a sufficiently cynical audience, media outlets will make egregiously false statements even if such statements are recognized as false with probability one.

Keywords: Propaganda, Media, Cynicism, Autocracy, Disinformation

JEL Classification: D03, D72, D82, D83