Comparing the Longevity of Electric Vehicles and Internal-Combustion Engine Vehicles: Estimates from More than 300 Million Mot Test Results in Great Britain

Abstract

Knowing how long the average vehicle remains roadworthy is a crucial input into life cycle assessment (LCA) and total cost of ownership (TCO) studies of different vehicle powertrains. This study leverages a dataset of nearly 300 million MOT records from 2005 to 2022 for nearly 30 million vehicles registered in Great Britain and uses parametric survival analysis with interval-censored data to estimate the longevity of various powertrains under real usage conditions. Our findings reveal that battery electric vehicles (BEVs), while initially showing lower reliability, have benefited from rapid technological improvements such that the latest BEVs in our sample match the lifespan of petrol vehicles despite being used more intensively. Longevity is also impacted by engine size, location, and make of vehicle. The results provide parameter estimates that can be used to update TCO and LCA models and also shed light on EV diffusion patterns, fleet replacement strategies, and end-of-life treatment planning, including the increasingly important debate around EV battery recycling and second-life options.

Keywords: Electric Vehicles, survival analysis, total cost of ownership, life cycle assessment