Comparing the Longevity of Electric Vehicles and Internal-Combustion Engine Vehicles: Estimates from More than 300 Million Mot Test Results in Great Britain

43 Pages Posted: 11 Jun 2024

See all articles by Viet Nguyen-Tien

Viet Nguyen-Tien

London School of Economics and Political Science

Robert J. R. Elliott

University of Birmingham

Eric Strobl

University of Bern

Chengyu Zhang

University of Birmingham

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Abstract

Knowing how long the average vehicle remains roadworthy is a crucial input into life cycle assessment (LCA) and total cost of ownership (TCO) studies of different vehicle powertrains. This study leverages a dataset of nearly 300 million MOT records from 2005 to 2022 for nearly 30 million vehicles registered in Great Britain and uses parametric survival analysis with interval-censored data to estimate the longevity of various powertrains under real usage conditions. Our findings reveal that battery electric vehicles (BEVs), while initially showing lower reliability, have benefited from rapid technological improvements such that the latest BEVs in our sample match the lifespan of petrol vehicles despite being used more intensively. Longevity is also impacted by engine size, location, and make of vehicle. The results provide parameter estimates that can be used to update TCO and LCA models and also shed light on EV diffusion patterns, fleet replacement strategies, and end-of-life treatment planning, including the increasingly important debate around EV battery recycling and second-life options.

Keywords: Electric Vehicles, survival analysis, total cost of ownership, life cycle assessment

Suggested Citation

Nguyen-Tien, Viet and Elliott, Robert J. R. and Strobl, Eric and Zhang, Chengyu, Comparing the Longevity of Electric Vehicles and Internal-Combustion Engine Vehicles: Estimates from More than 300 Million Mot Test Results in Great Britain. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4861431 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4861431

Viet Nguyen-Tien (Contact Author)

London School of Economics and Political Science ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

Robert J. R. Elliott

University of Birmingham ( email )

Eric Strobl

University of Bern ( email )

Gesellschaftsstrasse 49
Bern, 3001
Switzerland

Chengyu Zhang

University of Birmingham ( email )

Edgbaston, B15 2TT
United Kingdom

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