Unprecedented Flooding in Porto Alegre Metropolitan Region (Southern Brazil) in May 2024: Causes, Risks, and Impacts

32 Pages Posted: 17 Jun 2024

See all articles by Enner Alcântara

Enner Alcântara

affiliation not provided to SSRN

José Mantovani

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Cheila Baião

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Luana Pampuch

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Marcelo Curtarelli

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Yasmim Guimarães

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Luciana R. Londe

affiliation not provided to SSRN

João Vitor Ribeiro

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Klécia Massi

São Paulo State University Júlio de Mesquita Filho

Jose Marengo

National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters- Brazil

CARLOS NOBRE

University of São Paulo (USP)

Arcilan Assireu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Cassiano Bortolozo

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Silvio Jorge Coelho Simões

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Javier Tomasella

National Institute for Space Research

Osvaldo Moraes

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Edward Park

Nanyang Technological University (NTU)

Abstract

On May 2, 2024, Porto Alegre in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, experienced a historic flood surpassing the catastrophic 1941 event. The flood's peak water level of 535 cm was 59 cm higher than in 1941, driven by extreme precipitation anomalies and land use changes in the Regional Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre, with rainfall accumulations up to 500 mm in May 2024. Severe urban flooding impacted riverbanks and low-lying areas, causing significant property damage, displacement, and disruption of essential services. Agricultural lands and grasslands were extensively affected. Detailed maps from May 3 to May 8, 2024, showed floodwaters rising from 5.5 meters to 8 meters. Validation sample points ensured data accuracy, and flood model validation metrics (NSE = 0.63, R² = 0.71, RMSE = 0.51 m) demonstrated the model's predictive accuracy. Water level fluctuations at Cais Guaíba station revealed rapid rise and recession periods typical of major floods. This study highlights the urgent need for effective flood mitigation strategies, informed by accurate modeling and risk assessment, to protect vulnerable communities and infrastructure. Enhancing resilience through improved urban planning, infrastructure investment, and environmental conservation is crucial to safeguarding Porto Alegre and the broader RMPOA region from future extreme weather events.

Keywords: Porto Alegre Flood 2024, flood risk management, urban flooding, Extreme Events, Risk to people.

Suggested Citation

Alcântara, Enner and Mantovani, José and Baião, Cheila and Pampuch, Luana and Curtarelli, Marcelo and Guimarães, Yasmim and Londe, Luciana R. and Ribeiro, João Vitor and Massi, Klécia and Marengo, Jose and NOBRE, CARLOS and Assireu, Arcilan and Bortolozo, Cassiano and Simões, Silvio Jorge Coelho and Tomasella, Javier and Moraes, Osvaldo and Park, Edward, Unprecedented Flooding in Porto Alegre Metropolitan Region (Southern Brazil) in May 2024: Causes, Risks, and Impacts. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4867780 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4867780

Enner Alcântara (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

José Mantovani

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Cheila Baião

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Luana Pampuch

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Marcelo Curtarelli

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Yasmim Guimarães

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Luciana R. Londe

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

João Vitor Ribeiro

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Klécia Massi

São Paulo State University Júlio de Mesquita Filho ( email )

Jose Marengo

National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters- Brazil ( email )

São Paulo, 12630-000
Brazil

CARLOS NOBRE

University of São Paulo (USP) ( email )

Arcilan Assireu

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Cassiano Bortolozo

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Silvio Jorge Coelho Simões

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Javier Tomasella

National Institute for Space Research ( email )

Osvaldo Moraes

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Edward Park

Nanyang Technological University (NTU) ( email )

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