A Web-Based Decision-Support System for Arctic Oil Spills Impacts Assessment

31 Pages Posted: 18 Jun 2024

See all articles by Syed Nasir Danial

Syed Nasir Danial

University of Manitoba

Mawuli Afenyo

Texas A&M University

Bushra Khan

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Adolf Ng

BNU-HKBU United International College

Travis Lin

Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University United International College

Gary Stern

University of Manitoba

Paul D. Larson

University of Manitoba

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Abstract

This paper proposes the development of a web-based decision support system using Bayesian theory. The focus is to enhance the estimation of the impact of oil spills in the Arctic in terms of social, environmental, and economic implications. Literature about social impacts that affect indigenous Arctic communities, environment, and economies of the involved regions have been consulted to obtain relevant data. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the proposed model is presented. The model has been applied to simulate the Siberian oil spill and the results are found close to the observed data. Minor deviations are found in the case of the Tug Powhaten oil spill, a small-scale spill. A web-based approach has been adopted to begin coding the model into software for easy operationalization and use. This will also provide accessibility to assemble large body of information for better modeling and simulation of future oil spills.

Keywords: Oil spills, Arctic shipping, Socioeconomic & environmental impact, Bayesian network, Indigenous community

Suggested Citation

Danial, Syed Nasir and Afenyo, Mawuli and Khan, Bushra and Ng, Adolf and Lin, Travis and Stern, Gary and Larson, Paul D., A Web-Based Decision-Support System for Arctic Oil Spills Impacts Assessment. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4869498 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4869498

Syed Nasir Danial (Contact Author)

University of Manitoba ( email )

501 F.A. Bldg
Winnipeg R3T 5V4, R3T 5V5
Canada

Mawuli Afenyo

Texas A&M University ( email )

Bushra Khan

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

Adolf Ng

BNU-HKBU United International College ( email )

China

Travis Lin

Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University United International College ( email )

28 Jinfeng Road
Tangjiawan
United States

Gary Stern

University of Manitoba ( email )

501 F.A. Bldg
Winnipeg R3T 5V4, R3T 5V5
Canada

Paul D. Larson

University of Manitoba ( email )

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