Us, Japan and the Euro Area: Comparing Business-Cycle Features
40 Pages Posted: 19 Jan 2004
Date Written: November 2003
Abstract
There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common business cycle, asymmetries in the national cycles and, using a number of algorithms, date business-cycle turning points. Despite a high degree of trade and financial linkages, the cyclical features of US, Japan and the euro area appear quite distinct. Documenting and comparing such international business-cycle features can aid forecasting, model selection and policy analysis etc.
Keywords: Business cycle, Markov switching, Synchronization, Turning points
JEL Classification: C32, F20
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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