Scenarios for Greening the Recovery: Zambia Workshop Synthesis Report

Abstract

A scenario is a coherent description of a possible future. The development of alternative scenarios provides a framework for comparing the potential outcomes of choices we could make, thereby increasing our ability to make choices with an awareness of their longer term implications. This paper reports the results of a scenario development workshop that took place in Zambia in December 2021. The workshop was attended by representatives of Zambian government, civil society, the private sector and regulators, as well as international organisations. The workshop was part of a broader, mixed method participatory scenarios process that addressed the question: “how can social and economic recovery from near-term shocks be achieved in the context of a long term pathway of resilient, inclusive and climate compatible development in Zambia?” The overall scenario process followed a structure guided by four framing questions: ‘where are we now?’; ‘where do we want to be?’; ‘how do we get there?’; and ‘how resilient will we be?’ Attendees at the workshop discussed and validated the project’s initial suggestions on the questions, ‘where are we now?’, ‘where do we want to be?’ and ‘how do we get there?’, which were derived from document analysis and semi-structured key informant interviews. The workshop participants then added greater detail to the question of ‘how do we get there?’, by discussing, defining and prioritising specific strategies that aligned with each scenario approach and their overall aspirations. The participants also considered the resilience of the different scenarios to barriers or external threats. The workshop and the scenario framework provided space for open-minded discussion of longer term priorities and development objectives, with issues identified including the importance of partnerships for sustainable financing, and climate resilience.

Keywords: Zambia, participatory, mixed-method, scenarios, sustainable, green growth, green development JEL Classification:

JEL Classification: Q20,Q28