Multi-platform assessment of coastal protection and carbon sequestration in the Venice Lagoon under future scenarios

Abstract

In recent decades, the rapid development of coastal regions, driven by sustained economic growth and population migration, has amplified their susceptibility to climate-induced hazards. The need to address these challenges in socio-economic coastal hotspots has become a pressing concern, requiring research and analysis to empower local decision-makers to undertake timely and appropriate adaptation measures. Simultaneously, many of these coastal areas boast rich natural habitats, which offer a diverse array of ecosystem services that can enhance climate resilience through both adaptation and mitigation efforts. This study, focuses on the Venice Lagoon, a region particularly vulnerable to natural hazards like sea-level rise, erosion, and flooding due to its low-lying coastal areas, seeks to examine the coastal protection and carbon sequestration services provided by seagrasses and salt marshes. Leveraging the InVEST platform known for its capabilities in valuing ecosystem services and assessing interventions for the protection and restoration of natural capital, this research takes a multi-platform approach by integrating the Coastal Vulnerability and Coastal Blue Carbon models to compute a composite index of these two ecosystem services. Additionally, we incorporate other tools that aid in the computation of the inputs to the InVEST models such as ARIES (Artificial Intelligence for Environment & Sustainability) and the QGIS plugins Molusce and SCP. We also provide estimates of carbon stocks, net carbon sequestration, and the economic value of these habitats for 2040 and 2060. The main outcome of this study is a combined index of coastal protection and carbon sequestration services developed to highlight crucial areas for the provisioning of these services, emphasizing the interconnectedness of socio-ecosystem components in coastal regions. In this study, we highlight the importance of using integrated assessment of ecosystem services in the context of climate change.

Keywords: Climate change adaptation, coastal protection, Venice, future scenarios, ecosystem service

JEL Classification: Q01, Q51, Q54, Q57