Development Tendency Analysis and Early Warning of Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model in Qaidam Salt Lake,China

Abstract

By exploring the interrelationships among the economy, water resources, mineral resources, and environment of the Qaidam Salt Lake, scientifically evaluating its resource and environmental carrying capacity aims to promote its regulated exploitation and sustainable development. Based on a system dynamics model, an evaluation indicator system for the resource and environmental carrying capacity of the Qaidam Salt Lake was constructed, integrating considerations of potash and lithium resource development. Four different scenarios were simulated to analyze the development tendencies of resource and environmental carrying capacity from 2021 to 2050, with early warnings issued. The results showed that: (1) Both the integrated carrying capacity of water resources and environmental exhibit a trend of initial decline followed by an increase, with the water resources carrying capacity remaining non-overloaded, while the environmental carrying capacity shows signs of overload. (2) By 2050, the estimated potash availability ranges from 224.86 to 275.00 million tons, whereas lithium availability ranges from 4.76 to 5.34 million tons. (3) Under the Business As Usual (BAU) and Increased Demand Scenario (IDS), orange or red warnings are predicted during 2027-2044 and 2026-2050, respectively, while the Resource-saving Scenario (RSS) and Technology Enhancement Scenario (TES) only trigger yellow warnings. Comprehensive assessment across resource consumption, environmental protection, and economic development shows that the TES scenario is most conducive to regional sustainable development. The results provide a scientific basis for sustainable management in Qaidam Salt Lake and serve as a reference for management in similar areas.

Keywords: Qaidam Salt Lake, resource and environmental carrying capacity, development tendency analysis, early warnings, System Dynamics Model