Going Negative in Autocracy: A Field Experiment at the Moscow Mayoral Elections

Journal of Experimental Political Science, Forthcoming

41 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2024

See all articles by Maxim Mironov

Maxim Mironov

IE Business School, IE University

Alexandra Petrachkova

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Political Science; Universidad Torcuato di Tella

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Date Written: July 04, 2024

Abstract

Opposition in autocracies often uses negativism against the regime to frame its principal message. This study is the first to experimentally evaluate the effectiveness of a negative campaign on a regime candidate's vote share. For the field experiment conducted during the 2013 Moscow mayoral election, we published a newspaper criticizing the incumbent mayor. We distributed approximately 130,000 copies near the entrances of 20 stations on four randomly selected metro lines one month prior to the election. We found that the incumbent's vote share was 1.7 percentage points lower at the voting stations where the newspaper was distributed. These votes go to other candidates who address issues raised by the negative campaign. Anti-regime campaigning does not suppress turnout or increase disapproval voting.

Keywords: electoral autocracy, opposition, voting behavior, negative campaign, field experiment

Suggested Citation

Mironov, Maxim and Petrachkova, Alexandra, Going Negative in Autocracy: A Field Experiment at the Moscow Mayoral Elections (July 04, 2024). Journal of Experimental Political Science, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4885631

Maxim Mironov

IE Business School, IE University ( email )

Calle Maria de Molina 12, 4izda
Madrid, Madrid 28006
Spain

Alexandra Petrachkova (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Political Science ( email )

Universidad Torcuato di Tella ( email )

Buenos Aires
Argentina

HOME PAGE: http://utdt.edu

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