Climate and Beyond: Multifactorial Impacts on Cereal Production in Myanmar

Abstract

Agriculture plays a major role in Myanmar's civilization, with cereal production being of utmost importance. However, there has been a decline in productivity over time. Therefore, the study investigates the dynamic relationship between various factors affecting cereal production in Myanmar from 1980 to 2021, including fertilizer consumption, crop land, farm machinery, labor force, average temperature and precipitation, ecological and carbon footprints, and cereal production. The study utilized the ARDL model to analyze relationships, and the Granger causality test revealed a significant influence of both climatic and non-climatic variables on cereal production. The empirical findings indicate that average temperature and average precipitation have a negative influence on cereal production in both the long and short term, although the results are statistically insignificant. Furthermore, the ecological footprint exhibits a positive effect on cereal production over the long and short term, whereas the carbon footprint exerts a negative impact on cereal production in both the long and short term. Non-climatic factors like fertilizer consumption and farm machinery positively impact cereal production, while crop land and labor force negatively affect it in both long and short-term. The study recommends relevant policies for policymakers and governments in Myanmar.

Keywords: Climatic Factors, Non-climatic factors, Cereal Production, Myanmar