Analysis of Regional Reallocation of Zero-Carbon Ammonia Production in China with Carbon Neutrality Targets

Abstract

Analyzing the cost viability of the zero-carbon transition of the national ammonia industry from the regional perspective requires consideration of the availability of local coal, natural gas, and solar resources, as well as inter-regional cooperation, but unfortunately, remain far from complete. In this study, we employed the IPAC-technology model to construct a sub-national ammonia industry economic technological assessment model and adopted transportation costs of commodities to link ammonia origins directly. Our results showed that carbon prices contributed appreciably more than electrolysis and nuclear technologies and lead to zero carbon production for all ammonia. Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and the Northwestern District were electrolysis technology priority regions; Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and Shandong were nuclear technology regions; southern China, Henan, and Shanxi would phase out from production; the triangle of central China, three northeastern provinces, Yangtze River Delta, and Southwest China were offered more options for development. It is worth noting that CO2 emissions from ammonia production in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and the triangle of central China would increase shortly which would exert pressure on local carbon reduction goals, while the national CO2 emissions from ammonia sector declined.

Keywords: regional reallocation, ammonia industry, zero-carbon hydrogen, IPAC-technology, interregional linkages