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Understanding Predictability

Posted: 26 Jan 2004  

Lior Menzly

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

Pietro Veronesi

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Tano Santos

Columbia Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Abstract

We propose a general equilibrium model with multiple securities in which investors' risk preferences and expectations of dividend growth are time-varying. While time-varying risk preferences induce the standard positive relation between the dividend yield and expected returns, time-varying expected dividend growth induces a negative relation between them. These offsetting effects reduce the ability of the dividend yield to forecast returns and eliminate its ability to forecast dividend growth, as observed in the data. The model links the predictability of returns to that of dividend growth, suggesting specific changes to standard linear predictive regressions for both. The model's predictions are confirmed empirically.

Suggested Citation

Menzly, Lior and Veronesi, Pietro and Santos, Tano, Understanding Predictability. Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 112, No. 1, Pt. 1, pp. 1-47, February 2004. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=489624

Lior Menzly

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

1101 East 58th Street
c/o PhD Office
Chicago, IL 60637
United States
(773) 702-7420 (Phone)
(773) 702-5257 (Fax)

Pietro Veronesi (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States
773-702-6348 (Phone)
773-702-0458 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Tano Santos

Columbia Business School ( email )

3022 Broadway - Uris Hall
Room 815
New York, NY 10027
United States
212-854-0489 (Phone)
212-316-9180 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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