Modelling Future Forest Clearances and the In-Kind Compensation Potential in Switzerland

Abstract

In most European countries, forest clearances, i.e. the conversion of forest land for non-forestry purposes (e.g. infrastructure expansion), are subject to authorization and must usually be in-kind compensated within the same region (compensatory afforestation), often on agricultural land. It is, however, becoming increasingly difficult to find suitable in-kind compensation areas. This challenges the in-kind compensation obligation, and ultimately the objective of quantitative forest conservation, especially in densely populated areas, e.g. in the Swiss Plateau. Building on a participatory and spatially explicit Bayesian network based prediction model for future infrastructure-related forest clearances, we estimate the regional in-kind compensation potential in Switzerland.The prediction model yields higher clearance probabilities for forests close to settlements. The potential availability for suitable in-kind compensation areas is smallest in the Alps and Southern Alps, especially for clearances along mountain valleys. However, in the Plateau area and in the Prealps, the in-kind compensation potential is mostly higher and not as scarce as expected. Hence, the difficulty in finding in-kind compensation area cannot only be explained with availability restrictions (limited potential), there must also be some hesitance involved to provide land for afforestation projects. In the interest of forest area conservation (especially in the Plateau region), it is crucial to improve or rather ensure the finding of in-kind compensation areas. There is hence a need for strategic planning related to the provision of suitable areas, e.g. the designation of areas ahead of time, and possibly the establishment of area pools for a compensation market.

Keywords: deforestation, Bayesian networks, spatial planning, compensatory afforestation, infrastructure expansion, land-use competition