A Multiperiod Multicommodity Capacitated International Agricultural Trade Network Equilibrium Model with Applications to Ukraine in Wartime

44 Pages Posted: 22 Jul 2024

See all articles by Dana Hassani

Dana Hassani

University of Massachusetts Amherst - Department of Operations and Information Management

Anna Nagurney

University of Massachusetts Amherst - Isenberg School of Management

Oleg Nivievskyi

Kyiv School of Economics; Free University Berlin; University of Queensland - School of Economics

Pavlo Matyshev

Kyiv School of Economics - Kyiv Economics Institute (KEI)

Date Written: July 11, 2024

Abstract

The world is facing immense challenges due to increasing strife and the impacts of climate change, with accompanying disasters, both sudden-onset as well as slow-onset ones, which have affected the trade of agricultural commodities needed for food security. In this paper, a multiperiod multicommodity international agricultural trade network equilibrium model is constructed with capacity constraints on the production, transportation, and storage of agricultural commodities. The model allows for multiple routes between supply and demand country markets, different modes of transport, and storage in the producing and consuming countries as well as in the intermediate countries. The generality of the underlying functions, coupled with the capacity constraints, allow for the modeling of competition among agricultural commodities for production, transportation, and storage. The capacity constraints also enable the quantification of various disaster-related disruptions to production, transportation, and storage on the volumes of commodity flows as well as on the prices. A series of numerical examples inspired by the effects of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on agricultural trade is presented, and the results are analyzed to provide insights into food insecurity issues caused by the war.

Keywords: networks, international trade, spatial price equilibrium, agriculture, disruptions, Ukraine

Suggested Citation

Hassani, Dana and Nagurney, Anna and Nivievskyi, Oleg and Martyshev, Pavlo, A Multiperiod Multicommodity Capacitated International Agricultural Trade Network Equilibrium Model with Applications to Ukraine in Wartime (July 11, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4899720 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4899720

Dana Hassani

University of Massachusetts Amherst - Department of Operations and Information Management ( email )

Amherst, MA 01003-4910
United States

Anna Nagurney (Contact Author)

University of Massachusetts Amherst - Isenberg School of Management ( email )

Amherst, MA 01003-4910
United States

Oleg Nivievskyi

Kyiv School of Economics ( email )

vul. Mykoly Shpaka 3
Kyiv, 04119
Ukraine

Free University Berlin ( email )

Germany

University of Queensland - School of Economics ( email )

Pavlo Martyshev

Kyiv School of Economics - Kyiv Economics Institute (KEI) ( email )

Kyiv, 04119
Ukraine

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