Femicides, Anti-Violence Centers, and Public Salience

Abstract

This paper investigates the socio-economic and geographic patterns associated with femicides and examines the role of local policies and public saliency in combating gender-based violence. First, we compile a novel granular dataset of femicide cases in Italy covering the period 2006-2022, and analyze it with machine learning techniques. This empirical analysis identifies areas at highest risk for women and pinpoints the main territorial predictors of the phenomenon. Second, we collect data on all local anti-violence centers (AVCs) and show that our femicide risk map only partially aligns with the local deployment of existing public support, suggesting that machine predictions could be employed to refine targeting criteria. Third, using detailed information on the timing of AVC opening in each province and a staggered non-parametric difference-in-differences approach, we show that the establishment of AVCs did not significantly decrease the occurrence of femicides, while it lowered the number of rapes. Lastly, we present evidence that a widespread and exogenous increase in public and media salience of the phenomenon triggers large-scale short-term effects on help-seeking behavior that extend far beyond the local level. These findings suggest ample room to improve the targeting and effectiveness of public policy interventions aimed at combating violence against women.

Keywords: gender-based violence, policy targeting, policy evaluation, femicides, public policy

JEL Classification: I18, J12, J16, K42