Dangerous Density: The Criminalization and the Urban Density of China

Abstract

We utilized publicly available data from Judicial Criminal Judgments in China and a range of remotely sensed data to examine the impact of urban density on the crime risk of urban residents at the district level. Exploiting population features to instrument for density, we found a statistically significant crime-density elasticity around 0.09-0.18. The findings of this study indicate that population density has a greater impact on economic crime than other factors. This effect is particularly pronounced in medium-sized cities. The increase in the density of new businesses brings more revenue to criminals, while the improvement of the road network reduces the risk of being caught. In the context of high population density, the overstretched police force makes it easier for criminals to enter high-density areas to commit crimes.

Keywords: Urban density, Crimes rate, Negative externality, Agglomeration