Saudi Arabia: From The Big Push To The Long Push  
Building Resilience Beyond Vision 2030

46 Pages Posted: 13 Aug 2024

See all articles by Khalid Alsweilem

Khalid Alsweilem

Center for Sustainable Development and Global Competitiveness, Stanford University

Michael Lepech

Stanford University - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Ashby Monk

Stanford University

Malan Rietveld

Stanford University

Date Written: August 01, 2024

Abstract

In 2016, Saudi Arabia launched Vision 2030 to diversify its economy and enhance sovereign wealth management, marking a shift from past practices. By 2024, significant progress includes channeling oil revenues into domestic investments, representing a "Big Push" across the economy. This paper proposes policies for a sustainable economic transition from the "Big Push" to a "Long Push" beyond this decade. It highlights reduced fiscal dependence on oil and increased domestic investment via the Public Investment Fund (PIF), focusing on emerging sectors like AI, renewable energy, and targeted foreign partnerships to boost innovation. To ensure stability during the Long Push, the paper recommends strengthening rule-based fiscal policy, stabilizing public spending, and managing foreign assets and oil income sustainably. It suggests expanding the PIF's portfolio to include traditional foreign assets for resilient dollar-based income, consolidating surplus foreign assets under Central Government institutions, and developing diversified, income-generating portfolios managed by the PIF and the Saudi central bank (SAMA). These strategies aim to position the PIF for sustained income generation beyond 2030, ensuring Saudi Arabia's long-term economic stability and growth.

Keywords: Saudi Arabia, Vision 2030, fiscal sustainability, public investment, oil revenues, Public Investment Fund, SAMA, infrastructure, Artificial Intelligence, Sovereign Wealth Fund, Sovereign Development Fund, fiscal rule

Suggested Citation

Alsweilem, Khalid and Lepech, Michael and Monk, Ashby and Rietveld, Malan, Saudi Arabia: From The Big Push To The Long Push  
Building Resilience Beyond Vision 2030
(August 01, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4912451 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4912451

Khalid Alsweilem

Center for Sustainable Development and Global Competitiveness, Stanford University ( email )

473 Via Ortega
Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Michael Lepech

Stanford University - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering ( email )

CA
United States

Ashby Monk (Contact Author)

Stanford University ( email )

United States

Malan Rietveld

Stanford University ( email )

269 Campus Dr.

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