Preference Reversals in Early Policy Adoption

Abstract

How do policy trade-offs influence elite preferences in policy adoption? This study examines how the framing of policy problems shapes elite decision-making, specifically focusing on policy reversals-instances where elites change their policy preferences during the adoption process. Departing from conventional explanations centered on electoral pressures and platforming costs, this research posits that the process of weighing policy trade-offs significantly shapes these reversals. To test this hypothesis, a two-stage experiment involving a representative sample of Greek local officials (N=586) was conducted, exposing participants to single-dimensional and multi-dimensional framings of a refugee reception policy in a within-subject design. The multi-dimensional aspect was explored through an embedded conjoint experiment (N=3,516). Findings reveal a two percentage-point increase in policy support under the multi-dimensional frame, with this effect more pronounced among center and right-wing politicians. These results highlight the importance of trade-offs and partisan heterogeneity in understanding elite decision-making, thereby offering insights into early policy adoption processes.

Keywords: policy reversal, preference reversal, flip-flopping, immigration policy, survey experiment, policy adoption