A Study of Risk Factors for Potential Spills in the Galveston Bay Area

Abstract

Maritime businesses in Galveston Bay are at risk from environmental and economic damages caused by potential chemical/oil spills. Spills disrupt shipping lanes/ports, damage surrounding ecosystems, and can require expensive and laborious cleanup efforts. Despite improvements in technology and increased regulations that seek to mitigate the occurrence and risks of spills, they will continue to happen and cause damages. As such, new, sustainable, and proactive approaches to solving the spill problem must be created. We studied the risk-related factors involved with spills in Galveston Bay, Texas and the resulting environmental and economic impacts. To assess these factors, the extant literature was reviewed, and qualitative and quantitative questionnaires were distributed to eight experts on spills in the Galveston Bay area. The factors solicited from the literature and questionnaires were used to construct an Environmental and Economic Impact Model (EEIM) using the Bayesian theory. Critical risk-related factors were found to be spill location, spill type, environmental conditions, seasonality, and the specific cleanup/recovery methods deployed. In addition, costs of the environmental and economic impacts were quantified for several potential spill scenarios. The information obtained in this study can be used to develop transferrable tools, guidelines, and frameworks to support decision-making in the Galveston Bay area and elsewhere. Further, the paper underscores the need for a holistic and proactive evaluation of the different dimensions of a spill this includes policy implications, economic, health, social and social implications as well as the most effective remediation mechanisms for particular scenarios.

Keywords: Oil Spills, Environmental Pollution, Economics, Bayesian Networks, Risk-Analysis