Do Public Investments on Ecological Conservation Benefit Wetland Ecosystem Services? a Nationwide Assessment Using Spatial Quantitative Model

Abstract

Despite extensive research on impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystem services (ES), the role of public conservation investments has been underexplored. This study examines the effects of various ecological conservation investments on five major wetland ecosystem services: microclimate regulation, carbon fixation, water regulation, soil retention, and sandstorm prevention across mainland China (excluding Hong Kong and Macau) from 2015 to 2019. Using spatial ecosystem service valuation (ESV) tools and fixed-effects panel regression, we found that a 1% increase in wetland restoration investment enhances the value of microclimate regulation and water regulation services by 1.67% and 1.86%, respectively. Similarly, a 1% increase in forest conservation investment predicts a 1.48% increase in carbon fixation and a 0.5% increase in water regulation services. Our uncertainty analysis, incorporating varying conservation investment levels and climate conditions, uses a random forest approach to predict future changes in wetland ES. Results indicate that most wetland ES remain stable under future scenarios, except for a universal decline in carbon fixation. Additionally, soil retention and sandstorm prevention services, which often go hand in hand, are projected to increase in northwestern and northeastern provinces. These findings provide insights for policymakers on optimizing conservation investments to maximize ecological and economic returns amidst climate change.

Keywords: Wetland conservation, Ecosystem services, Climate change, Machine learning, Spatial Modelling