Under-Investment in Scotland's Oil and Gas Sector: Employment, Economic and Energy Transition Implications Through CGE Modelling

Abstract

This study uses a CGE model to examine the employment, economic, and energy transition implications of under-investment in Scotland’s oil and gas sector. Forecasts indicate a total job loss of about 19,509 in Scotland by 2030, including 11,193 direct oil and gas jobs. Affected sectors include manufacturing, construction, finance, and retail. Key macroeconomic impacts include a 2.11% GDP decrease and a 0.37% inflation increase. Mitigating investment decline is crucial for a smooth transition to renewables, leveraging the transferable skills of oil and gas workers, enhancing energy security, and maintaining Scotland’s competitiveness in the global energy landscape.

Keywords: Scotland, Oil, investment