Learning Source Biases: Multisource Misspecifications and Their Impact on Predictions

Abstract

We study how a Bayesian decision maker (DM) learns about the biases of novel information sources to predict a random state. Absent frictions, the DM uses familiar sources as yardsticks to accurately discern the biases of novel sources. We derive the distortion of the DM's long-run prediction when the DM holds misspecified beliefs about the biases of several familiar sources. The distortion aggregates misspecifications across familiar sources independently of the number and nature of the novel sources the DM learns about. This has implications for labor market discrimination, media bias, and project finance and oversight.

Keywords: Misspecified Learning, Discrimination, Beliefs