Impacts of Heatwaves on Electricity Reliability: Evidence from Power Outage Data in China

Abstract

Heatwaves have become increasingly frequent and intense due to climate change. They pose challenges to energy systems due to concomitant increase in demand and reduction in supply, which could lead to power outages and blackouts. In this study, we conducted an empirical analysis of the impact of heatwaves on power outages, using high-frequency outage data in China from 2019 to 2021. Our results indicate that heatwaves increase the frequency of outages by 3.9-4.0% while extending the duration by 7.9-8.3%. Besides, for each degree increase in temperature during heatwaves, the occurrence of outages increases by 0.1% while an additional day of heatwaves raises outage by 0.5%. We also observed heterogeneity in outage impacts across different socio-demographic groups. Furthermore, we projected how heatwave-induced outages increase under three scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. We found that outages would increase by 5.2-12.5% in 2030 and 7.4-20.3% in 2050, which highlights the urgent need for adaptation strategies. These findings underscore the importance of timely investments in grid upgrades and inform interventions and resource allocation regarding adaptation strategies to climate change.