'Not as bad as I thought': Economic attitudes and motivated reasoning in coalition governments

30 Pages Posted: 9 Oct 2024

See all articles by Georgios Kavetsos

Georgios Kavetsos

Queen Mary University of London; London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Centre for Economic Performance (CEP)

Christian Krekel

London School of Economics; London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Centre for Economic Performance (CEP); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Georgios Melios

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Psychological and Behavioural Science; University College London

Date Written: August 01, 2024

Abstract

Two prominent mechanisms have been advanced to explain the effects of election outcomes on economic attitudes/perceptions: partisan competence attribution, based on voters' genuine belief of an elected party's competence; and partisan motivated reasoning, where voters change their economic attitudes so as to remain consistent with their past behaviour/view. To date, these two mechanisms have not been considered jointly. We draw on a unique, closely spaced, panel dataset around the 2013 German general elections to consider retrospective (past evaluations) and prospective (future expectations) attitudes about both one's personal economic situation and that of the national economy. We find no evidence for competence attribution; voters of the future coalition parties do not expect higher household incomes nor their job situation to improve. We find changes in retrospective attitudes about the national economy, explained by partisan motivated reasoning given a political alliance that was negated and depreciated throughout the pre-election period. We discuss the implications these results have.

Keywords: Elections, voting, attitudes, Motivated reasoning

Suggested Citation

Kavetsos, Georgios and Krekel, Christian and Melios, Georgios, 'Not as bad as I thought': Economic attitudes and motivated reasoning in coalition governments (August 01, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4947672 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4947672

Georgios Kavetsos

Queen Mary University of London ( email )

Mile End Road
London, London E1 4NS
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London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) ( email )

Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

Christian Krekel

London School of Economics

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) ( email )

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Georgios Melios (Contact Author)

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Department of Psychological and Behavioural Science ( email )

(PBS), 3rd Floor, Queens House
55/56 Lincoln's Inn
Fields, London, WC2A 3LJ
United Kingdom

University College London ( email )

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United Kingdom

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