The Long Shadow of War: Assessing the Historical Effects of World War Ii Losses on Contemporary Conspiratorial Beliefs

Abstract

This paper investigates the long-term impact of World War II suffering on contemporary conspiratorial beliefs, drawing on the concept of historical trauma. We hypothesize that the extreme suffering endured during the war has left a persistent influence on societal attitudes, manifesting in higher levels of conspiracy thinking in affected regions. Utilizing a historical-legacy approach, we analyze data from two cross-national studies. Study 1 (analyzing 25 countries) finds that the scale of World War II losses in a given country predicts COVID-19 beliefs more strongly than current conflicts do. Study 2 (analyzing 29 countries) extends the analysis to general conspiratorial views of science, confirming that the scale of World War II losses is a significant predictor of conspiratorial beliefs. Our findings suggest that the psychological scars of past conflicts continue to shape contemporary social and political attitudes, particularly through the lens of conspiracy beliefs. These results emphasize the importance of considering historical context in understanding the roots of modern conspiratorial thinking.

Keywords: historical trauma, conspiracy beliefs, conspiracy theories, World War II