Common Seasonal Features: Global Unemployment

21 Pages Posted: 17 Dec 1996

See all articles by Svend Hylleberg

Svend Hylleberg

Aarhus University - Department of Economics

Robert F. Engle

New York University - Leonard N. Stern School of Business - Department of Economics; New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: October 1996

Abstract

Seasonal patterns in economic time series are generally examined from a univariate point of view. Using extensions of the unit root literature, important classes of seasonal processes are deterministic, stationary stochastic or mean reverting, and unit root stochastic. Time series tests have been developed for each of these. This paper examines seasonality in a multivariate context. Systems of economic variables can have trends, cycles and unit roots as well as the various types of seasonality. Restrictions such as cointegration and common cycles are here applied also to examine multivariate seasonal behavior of economic variables. If each of a collection of series has a certain type of seasonality but a linear combination of these series can be found without seasonality, then the seasonal is said to be ?common?. New tests are developed to determine if seasonal characteristics are common to a set of time series. These tests can be employed in the presence of various other time series structures. The analysis is applied to OECD data on unemployment for the period 1975.1 to 1993.4, and it is found that four diverse countries (Australia, Canada, Japan and USA) not only have common trends in their unemployment, but also have common deterministic seasonal features and a common cycle/stochastic seasonal feature. Such a collection of characteristics were not found in other groups of OECD countries.

JEL Classification: C22, C32, C51

Suggested Citation

Hylleberg, Svend and Engle, Robert F., Common Seasonal Features: Global Unemployment (October 1996). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=49640 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.49640

Svend Hylleberg

Aarhus University - Department of Economics ( email )

University Park
DK-8000 Aarhus C
Denmark
+45 8942 1133 (Phone)
+45 8613 6334 (Fax)

Robert F. Engle (Contact Author)

New York University - Leonard N. Stern School of Business - Department of Economics ( email )

269 Mercer Street
New York, NY 10003
United States

New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance

Stern School of Business
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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