Few Bad Apples? Criminal Charges, Political Careers, and Policy Outcomes

Abstract

We study the prevalence and effects of individuals with past criminal charges among politicians in Brazil. Individuals with past criminal charges are twice as likely to both run for office and be elected compared to the general population. This pattern persists across political parties and government levels, even when controlling for a broad set of observable characteristics. Using a regression discontinuity design based on close elections, we demonstrate that the election of mayors with criminal backgrounds leads to higher rates of underweight births and infant mortality, as well as fewer prenatal doctor appointments. Additionally, there is an increase in political patronage, particularly within high rank positions in the health sector, which is consistent with the negative impacts on local public health outcomes. Finally, we show that randomized anti-corruption audits reduce the share of mayors with criminal records but yield short-lived effects, only when conducted in election years.

Keywords: politicians, crime, audits, policies

JEL Classification: K42, J45, P16