Removals Ramp to Reach the UNFCCC IPCCC Net Zero goals, safely, effectively, and efficiently

Abstract

Achieving the UNFCCC IPCC's ambitious net-zero targets requires a new framework capable of addressing both the urgency and complexity of climate change. This paper introduces the "Removals Ramp" (RemRamp), a structured approach to systematically scale carbon dioxide (CO₂) removal capacity, providing a pathway for effective climate mitigation. The RemRamp concept sets annual targets for both installed capacity and cumulative removals, aligning closely with Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and adapting dynamically to shortfalls in emission reductions.

The RemRamp approach is guided by three fundamental principles for goal achievement: a clearly defined objective that includes a failure metric, accountability assigned to a responsible entity, and a strict deadline. Current global net-zero efforts lack these elements, leading to inconsistent and insufficient progress. Unlike the aggregate and often ambiguous NDCs, the RemRamp provides a clear and measurable pathway, enabling stakeholders to align annual progress towards a terminal target of global safety.

Key features of the RemRamp include:

1. Installed Capacity and Cumulative Removals: Installed capacity refers to the annual amount of CO₂ equivalent that can be removed, while cumulative removals quantify the total removed over time. This dual approach ensures both incremental progress and cumulative impact.

2. RemRamp Coverage Ratio: Designed to compensate for underperformance in emission reductions, this ratio ensures an adaptive increase in removals to maintain the trajectory towards net-zero.

3. Market Mechanisms and RemITMOs: The RemRamp creates market predictability for carbon removal, stimulating investments and technological innovation. RemITMOs (Removal Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes) facilitate cross-border collaboration and finance for carbon removal projects.

The design and implementation of a RemRamp involve essential decision levers, including the "shape" of the ramp curve, terminal removal capacity, and accountability mechanisms, while also considering constraints such as timeliness, capacity deployment, cost, and biodiversity impacts. The RemRamp is not presented as a definitive solution but as a framework to stimulate informed debate on the path towards achieving the IPCC's climate goals.

By setting incremental targets, assigning clear responsibilities, and fostering market engagement, the RemRamp offers a practical and scalable approach to achieving net-zero emissions by 2040, thereby reducing the catastrophic risks of inaction. This concept provides a structured framework for aligning global efforts towards a sustainable and climate-resilient future.

Keywords: carbon, carbon removal, NDC goals, UNFCCC, Climate change, 1.5 degree target, residual emissions, economics of climate

JEL Classification: Q54, Q58, Q42, Q48, H23, H54, O32, O38, F53, Q57, Q23, G18, G31