What If? A Socio-Environmental Agenda in a ‘Security Europe’?

Abstract

'What if?' is a question that some foresight methodologies use as a way to think through the impact of future scenarios: 'What if that happened?' -What if war broke out right in the heart of Europe? What if extreme climate events completely disrupted the European economy? What if political radicalisation led to civil war and endangered the European project? What if, in extremists' hands, artificial intelligence increased the power to disrupt and destroy western democracies? What if trade wars suddenly cut off Europe's access to supplies?

This Foresight Brief is based on a factual observation: security issues are cropping up across European institutions’ policy agendas, reflecting an increasingly challenging and uncertain environment. These issues have, of course, taken on a military aspect as a result of the war in Ukraine, but they are also connected to other areas, including climate, commerce, technology and health. This Brief postulates that the ‘Security Union’, as the European Union (EU) institutions have dubbed it, will be the number one priority of the new European Commission and the new European Parliament (2024-2029). This brings two questions to mind, namely what are the likely implications of this kind of political priority for the EU’s social and climate agenda? And what would be the likely place and role of trade union organisations in a security-conscious or even security-driven Europe? These are the questions discussed in this Brief.