From Contentious to Consensus - Expert Consultation and Perspectives on the Net Zero Energy Transition Applied to Northern Ireland

Abstract

This study examines key considerations of the net zero energy transition and identifies policy dilemmas using a modified Delphi study. Contentious issues are identified through divergent opinions, but consensus groups are discovered through agglomerative clustering. These groups are examined by sector and industry,  presenting a new approach to building societal agreement on decarbonisation through  structured group debates. The study consists of a remote survey of 29 participants, followed by an in-person sandpit discussion. In Northern Ireland's energy  decarbonisation strategy, policymakers apply five policy lenses of decarbonisation, equity, security, macroeconomic benefit, and efficiency,  using sectoral strategies to drive the heat, power, and transport sectors to net zero by 2050. The study results align with real-world policy frameworks and sectoral boundaries, contextualized as technology and societal readiness levels. The findings show that experts rank environment as the top priority in the energy trilemma and prioritise spreading net zero transition costs fairly. Investigation of power sector decarbonisation found that the most favoured action of large-scale renewable installation is at odds with the current UK government policy, which effectively prohibits new on-shore wind deployment. For the heat sector, improved insulation is the top priority; and in the transport sector, electrification is favoured over hydrogen.

Keywords: Net Zero, policy, Delphi study, Consensus, TRL, SRL