Polycrisis: A Framework for Understanding Multiple Crises in the Metacoupled World

Abstract

The world is becoming more interconnected than ever through the exchange of materials, cultures, people, and knowledge. A crisis in a country or region may spread its effects cascading through time and space. The multiple crises currently facing the world will threaten globalization and undermine this vast network of social environments. Seemingly independent crises may be nodes in a network that cause cascading effects, and when multiple crises coincide, the cascading effects of these crises may amplify their impact. Here, we address these crises as a whole and propose a 'Polycrisis' framework in conjunction with the framework of metacoupling (humannature interactions within as well as across adjacent and distant systems) for understanding and assessing the impact and interdependence of multiple crises that emerge globally in the context of an interactive world. We introduce two representative developed and developing countries, Germany and China, to demonstrate the usefulness of the framework. We unpack the challenges of integrated multi-crisis management in these countries and discuss policy implications for future insights and management in these countries and the world.

Keywords: polycrisis, metacoupling, crisis management, Germany, China