This Time It's Different – Generative Artificial Intelligence and Occupational Choice

Abstract

We show the causal influence of the launch of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in the form of ChatGPT on the search behavior of young people for apprenticeship vacancies. In order to estimate the short- and medium-term effects, we use a variety of methods, including a difference-in-discontinuity approach exploiting the exogenous nature of the unanticipated launch of ChatGPT in 2022. There is a strong short- and medium-term decline in the intensity of searches for vacancies, which suggests great uncertainty among the affected cohort. Occupations with a high proportion of cognitive tasks and with high demands on language skills were particularly affected by the decline. Interestingly, the revealed preferences in the search behavior of young job seekers contrasted with previous expert assessments on the automation risks of occupations, and aligned with the most recent assessments of the AI and language model exposure of occupations – before these new assessments existed.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, occupational choice, Labor supply, technological change