This Time It's Different – Generative Artificial Intelligence and Occupational Choice

46 Pages Posted: 30 Oct 2024

See all articles by Daniel Goller

Daniel Goller

University of Bern

Christian Gschwendt

University of Bern

Stefan C. Wolter

Swiss Coordination Centre for Research in Education (SKBF); University of Bern - Department of Economics

Abstract

We show the causal influence of the launch of generative artificial intelligence (AI) in the form of ChatGPT on the search behavior of young people for apprenticeship vacancies. In order to estimate the short- and medium-term effects, we use a variety of methods, including a difference-in-discontinuity approach exploiting the exogenous nature of the unanticipated launch of ChatGPT in 2022. There is a strong short- and medium-term decline in the intensity of searches for vacancies, which suggests great uncertainty among the affected cohort. Occupations with a high proportion of cognitive tasks and with high demands on language skills were particularly affected by the decline. Interestingly, the revealed preferences in the search behavior of young job seekers contrasted with previous expert assessments on the automation risks of occupations, and aligned with the most recent assessments of the AI and language model exposure of occupations – before these new assessments existed.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, occupational choice, Labor supply, technological change

Suggested Citation

Goller, Daniel and Gschwendt, Christian and Wolter, Stefan C., This Time It's Different – Generative Artificial Intelligence and Occupational Choice. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5004068 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5004068

Daniel Goller

University of Bern ( email )

Gesellschaftsstrasse 49
Bern, BERN 3001
Switzerland

Stefan C. Wolter

Swiss Coordination Centre for Research in Education (SKBF) ( email )

CH - 5000 Aarau
Switzerland
+41 62 835 23 90 (Phone)
+41 62 835 23 99 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.skbf-csre.ch

University of Bern - Department of Economics ( email )

Gesellschaftstrasse 49
Bern, CH-3012
Switzerland
+41 31 631 40 95 (Phone)
+41 31 631 39 92 (Fax)

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