Revealing Global Energy Security from the Perspectives of Fossil and Metal Resource Supply

Abstract

The global energy transition will require both fossil fuels and renewable energy, alongside metals essential for low-carbon technologies. The availability of these resources is key to energy security. While fossil fuel and metal supply patterns have been studied, few have assessed energy security based on both. We examine how fossil and metal supplies affect global energy security using a two-phase assessment framework. First, we analyze the supply concentration of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, coal) and copper from 2000-2022 using the Herfindahl Hirschman Index (HHI). Second, we assess energy security by weighing the HHI based on the global energy mix.Key findings include(a) Copper is produced in fewer countries (61) compared to oil (101), gas (93), and coal (73); (b) Oil and coal supply concentrations have increased, while natural gas and copper concentrations have decreased; (c) Energy security risks have risen, with mineral supply concentration increasing by 48% from 2000-2022. This highlights the need for further research on the interaction between fossil fuels and metal extraction in the low-carbon transition.

Keywords: Supply concentration, Fossil and metal resources, Energy security