Future Scenario Building for Myanmar–Thailand Energy Relations: Navigating Policy Amid Conflict

Abstract

This study uses future scenario-building to explore the implications of Thailand’s energy investments in Myanmar, particularly after the 2021 military coup. It examines four scenarios through a participatory, deliberative approach, capturing diverse stakeholder perceptions and challenges. Two scenario-building exercises with Myanmar and Thai participants, along with 16 key informant interviews, provide valuable insights. The findings offer policy recommendations that balance technical possibilities with stakeholder aspirations, focusing on creating sustainable energy futures and mitigating worst-case scenarios. This research enhances understanding of cross-border energy investments and supports policies that promote desirable futures while preventing adverse outcomes.

Keywords: Myanmar, Thailand, energy investment, scenario-building, policy recommendations