Future Scenario Building for Myanmar–Thailand Energy Relations: Navigating Policy Amid Conflict

38 Pages Posted: 6 Nov 2024

See all articles by Warathida Chaiyapa

Warathida Chaiyapa

Chiang Mai University

Soe Ko Ko Aung

Chiang Mai University

Hnin Wint Nyunt Hman

Chiang Mai University

Indra Overland

NUPI - Norwegian Institute of International Affairs; NUPI - Norwegian Institute for International Affairs

Roman Vakulchuk

NUPI - Norwegian Institute for International Affairs

Abstract

This study uses future scenario-building to explore the implications of Thailand’s energy investments in Myanmar, particularly after the 2021 military coup. It examines four scenarios through a participatory, deliberative approach, capturing diverse stakeholder perceptions and challenges. Two scenario-building exercises with Myanmar and Thai participants, along with 16 key informant interviews, provide valuable insights. The findings offer policy recommendations that balance technical possibilities with stakeholder aspirations, focusing on creating sustainable energy futures and mitigating worst-case scenarios. This research enhances understanding of cross-border energy investments and supports policies that promote desirable futures while preventing adverse outcomes.

Keywords: Myanmar, Thailand, energy investment, scenario-building, policy recommendations

Suggested Citation

Chaiyapa, Warathida and Aung, Soe Ko Ko and Hman, Hnin Wint Nyunt and Overland, Indra and Vakulchuk, Roman, Future Scenario Building for Myanmar–Thailand Energy Relations: Navigating Policy Amid Conflict. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5011579 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5011579

Warathida Chaiyapa (Contact Author)

Chiang Mai University ( email )

Huay Kaew Road
Chiang Mai, 50100
Thailand

Soe Ko Ko Aung

Chiang Mai University ( email )

Huay Kaew Road
Chiang Mai, 50100
Thailand

Hnin Wint Nyunt Hman

Chiang Mai University ( email )

Huay Kaew Road
Chiang Mai, 50100
Thailand

Indra Overland

NUPI - Norwegian Institute of International Affairs ( email )

Oslo
Norway

NUPI - Norwegian Institute for International Affairs ( email )

Oslo
Norway

Roman Vakulchuk

NUPI - Norwegian Institute for International Affairs ( email )

Oslo
Norway

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