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The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Oral Disorders in 204 Countries and Territories,1990-2021, and Projections to 2050: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
29 Pages Posted: 12 Nov 2024
More...Abstract
Background: Oral disorders are among the most prevalent health conditions globally. This study aimed to systematically analyze the global, regional, and national burden of oral disorders between 1990 and 2021, using updated data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, and project future trends up to 2050.
Methods: Using the 2021 Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) analytical tools, oral disease prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) across 204 countries and territories were grouped into 21 GBD regions by the socio-demographic index (SDI). Frontier analysis and the Bayesian age-period-cohort model were utilized to predict future trends up to 2050, and the mean estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were computed using linear regression. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were presented for every metric based on the 25th and 975th percentiles of 1000 draws of the posterior distribution.
Findings: Between 1990 and 2021, the global prevalence of oral disorders increased significantly, with permanent tooth decay and periodontitis showing the most significant growth. Although age-standardized rates (ASRs) for most oral disorders showed a slight decline or remained stable, the absolute burden of these conditions increased due to population growth and aging. Low and middle SDI regions experienced the most significant increases in prevalence and incidence, whereas high SDI regions showed relatively stable or declining trends. By 2050, the global burden of oral disorders is projected to continue increasing, with substantial regional and socioeconomic disparities persisting.
Interpretation: Oral disorders pose a growing global health challenge, particularly in low and middle-SDI regions. Effective public health interventions are urgently needed to reduce the future burden, mitigate health disparities, and improve global oral health outcomes.
Funding: This work was partially supported by “ Basic and Clinical Research Innovation Team for Orthodontic Treatment of Dentition and Maxillofacial Deformity, Zunyi Medical University, Grant/Award Number: Zun Shi Ke He HZ Zi (2022) 423; Guizhou Provincial Department of Education Rolling Support for Provincial Universities Scientific Research Platform Team Project ‘Guizhou Provincial General Key Laboratory of Oral Disease Research Characteristics in General Higher Education Institutions’, No.: Guizhou Education and Technology [2022]025; Guizhou Provincial Science and Technology Department 2020 Innovation and Entrepreneurship Carrier Project ‘Zunyi Medical University Biological Medicine University Science and Technology Park’, No:Qiankehe Platform Talent-DXKJY[2021]001”.
Declaration of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Keywords: Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Oral disorders, Oral health care
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