Trumping Immigration: Visa Uncertainty and Jobs Relocation

46 Pages Posted: 21 Nov 2024

See all articles by Ritam Chaurey

Ritam Chaurey

Johns Hopkins University - Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)

Kanika Mahajan

Ashoka University

Shekhar Tomar

Indian School of Business

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Abstract

We estimate the impact of immigration policy uncertainty in the US on the demand for workers in the sending country. To do this, we exploit the increased uncertainty around H-1B visas after President Trump's win in the 2016 Republican primary election. Using postings data from the largest Indian jobs platform, we find that firms more exposed to the shock increase their India-based job postings immediately after the heightened uncertainty. This surge is attributed to the relocation of jobs from the US to India for occupations more amenable to offshoring. India-headquartered firms lead this change and witness an increase in exports.

Keywords: immigration, uncertainty, job postings, outsourcing, spillover

Suggested Citation

Chaurey, Ritam and Mahajan, Kanika and Tomar, Shekhar, Trumping Immigration: Visa Uncertainty and Jobs Relocation. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5029344 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5029344

Ritam Chaurey (Contact Author)

Johns Hopkins University - Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) ( email )

1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036-1984
United States

Kanika Mahajan

Ashoka University ( email )

University Campus, Plot #2,
Rajiv Gandhi Education City
Kundli, 131028
India

Shekhar Tomar

Indian School of Business ( email )

Hyderabad, Gachibowli 500 019
India

HOME PAGE: http://shekhartomar.com

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