On the Value of Technical Analysis for Stock Traders in China

Abstract

It is documented that technical analysis is a highly pervasive activity among stock traders and security analysts in China. This paper uses eight years' data on daily stock prices and trading volume of thirty-nine companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to examine the usefulness of technical analysis. Very weak evidence in support of return predictability is generated either by considering returns alone or by the use of volume in conjunction with returns. The results not only cast doubt on the ability of technical analysis to predict future price movements in China's stock markets, but also challenge the views of market inefficiency for China that are based on aggregate market data rather than individual company data.

Keywords: Technical analysis, return predictability, trading volume, weak-form efficiency, China's stock market

JEL Classification: G12, G14, G18, G29, O53