Modelling national pathways to achieving the SDGs in Austria – Insights from a system simulation approach with focus on inequality, economic growth and climate mitigation

Abstract

While meeting climate targets, such as outlined in the Paris Agreement, demands intensified efforts and far-reaching systemic transformations, there is a lack of systems-based approaches for national transformation pathways that not only address climate mitigation but also integrate broader sustainability objectives. This paper analyses national pathways for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Austria using the iSDG-AT, a system dynamics-based computational model. The analysis focuses on interactions, synergies and trade-offs between SDG1/10 (no poverty, reduced inequalities), SDG8 (decent work and economic growth), and SDG13 (climate action) to address critical aspects such as energy poverty, economic growth, work satisfaction, and climate mitigation. Two scenarios are assessed: a baseline scenario reflecting existing energy and climate policies as of 2022 and an SDG scenario incorporating policy measures derived from a stakeholder participation process targeting social, economic and environmental goals. Results reveal that while the SDG scenario leads to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions compared to the baseline, explicit measures for reducing inequalities and counteracting unemployment are needed. Further challenges remain regarding the increased risk of energy poverty and coping with the tradeoffs between economic and environmental goals. The analysis highlights the importance of a holistic and integrated approach in further research on sustainable development pathways to address synergies and avoid unintended outcomes.

Keywords: System Dynamics, Modelling, Sustainable Development Goals, Climate action, Economic Growth, Energy Poverty

JEL Classification: Q57, Q54, I3, O4