Analyzing Scaling Laws Beyond City Boundaries Reveals Substantial Environmental Benefits of Dense Settlements

42 Pages Posted: 16 Dec 2024

See all articles by Yiwei Yang

Yiwei Yang

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna

Benedikt Grammer

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna

Rafael Prieto-Curiel

Complexity Science Hub Vienna

David Frantz

University of Trier

Helmut Haberl

Universität für Bodenkultur Wien (BOKU)

Dominik Wiedenhofer

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna; Universität für Bodenkultur Wien (BOKU)

Date Written: December 05, 2024

Abstract

Urban scaling laws have been proposed to explain how, as populations of cities grow, per-capita infrastructure demand decreases while per-capita socio-economic activity increases relatively. However, previous work deriving these ‘universal’ laws used artificial administrative urban boundaries and ignored the internal structure of cities. It is therefore unclear, whether these scaling effects result from population growth or densification, and how universal these laws are across the entire rural-urban settlement continuum.

We here leverage novel high-resolution remote sensing derived maps to quantitatively assess density-based scaling relations for buildings and mobility infrastructure across the contiguous United States (CONUS), overcoming the conventional one-city-one-value approach. Using 1 km grid cells, we examine scaling relationships between population density and 18 indicators for buildings and mobility infrastructure, covering material stocks, service provisioning, and operational GHG emissions. Results show that residential buildings (building footprint, floor area, materials) exhibit moderate sub-linear scaling (scaling exponents β: 0.82-0.89), while non-residential buildings and mobility infrastructure (area, materials) have pronounced sub-linear scaling relationships (β: 0.42-0.74). While scaling relationships show some variability, they generally hold across grid cell aggregations, outlier removal options, and regions. Scenarios assuming accommodation of additional future inhabitants in dense urban and suburban areas reveal that demand for new buildings and infrastructure could be reduced by 19.6 and 16.2 Gt of materials, and operational GHG emissions by 330 and 350 MtCO2, respectively, compared to a business-as-usual trajectory maintaining current population densities across the settlement continuum. Densification is therefore confirmed as crucial strategy for climate change mitigation and sustainable resource use.

Keywords: scaling laws, population density, infrastructure, buildings, material stocks, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

Suggested Citation

Yang, Yiwei and Grammer, Benedikt and Prieto-Curiel, Rafael and Frantz, David and Haberl, Helmut and Wiedenhofer, Dominik, Analyzing Scaling Laws Beyond City Boundaries Reveals Substantial Environmental Benefits of Dense Settlements (December 05, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5045642 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5045642

Yiwei Yang (Contact Author)

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna ( email )

Austria

Benedikt Grammer

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna ( email )

Austria

Rafael Prieto-Curiel

Complexity Science Hub Vienna ( email )

Josefstädter Straße 39
Vienna
Austria

David Frantz

University of Trier ( email )

15, Universitaetsring
Trier, 54286
Germany

Helmut Haberl

Universität für Bodenkultur Wien (BOKU) ( email )

Schottenfeldgasse 29
Vienna, Vienna 1070
Austria

Dominik Wiedenhofer

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna ( email )

Feistmantelstrasse 4
Wien, Vienna 8010
Austria

Universität für Bodenkultur Wien (BOKU) ( email )

Feistmantelstrasse 4
Wien, Vienna 8010
Austria

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