Do experimental asset market results replicate? High-powered preregistered replications of 17 claims

47 Pages Posted: 13 Dec 2024

See all articles by Christoph Huber

Christoph Huber

Aalto University - Department of Finance

Felix Holzmeister

University of Innsbruck - Department of Economics

Magnus Johannesson

Stockholm School of Economics - Department of Economics

Christian König-Kersting

University of Innsbruck

Anna Dreber

Stockholm School of Economics - Department of Economics

Juergen Huber

University of Innsbruck

Michael Kirchler

University of Innsbruck

Date Written: December 03, 2024

Abstract

Experimental asset markets provide a controlled approach to studying financial markets. We attempt to replicate 17 key results from four prominent studies, collecting new data from 166 markets with 1,544 participants. Only 3 of the 14 original results reported as statistically significant were successfully replicated, with an average replication effect size of 2.9% of the original estimates. We fail to replicate findings on emotions, self-control, and gender differences in bubble formation but confirm that experience reduces bubbles and cognitive skills explain trading success. Our study demonstrates the importance of replications in enhancing the credibility of scientific claims in this field.

Keywords: Experimental asset markets, Replicability, Market efficiency, Behavioral finance, Experimental finance, Self-control, Emotions, Cognitive skills, Gender differences, Replication

JEL Classification: G12, G41, C91, C92

Suggested Citation

Huber, Christoph and Holzmeister, Felix and Johannesson, Magnus and König-Kersting, Christian and Dreber, Anna and Huber, Juergen and Kirchler, Michael, Do experimental asset market results replicate? High-powered preregistered replications of 17 claims (December 03, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5048949 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5048949

Christoph Huber (Contact Author)

Aalto University - Department of Finance ( email )

Finland

Felix Holzmeister

University of Innsbruck - Department of Economics ( email )

Universitaetsstrasse 15
Innsbruck, 6020
Austria

HOME PAGE: http://www.holzmeister.biz

Magnus Johannesson

Stockholm School of Economics - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 6501
Sveavagen 65
S-113 83 Stockholm
Sweden

Christian König-Kersting

University of Innsbruck ( email )

Universitätsstraße 15
Innsbruck, Innsbruck 6020
Austria

Anna Dreber

Stockholm School of Economics - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 6501
Sveavagen 65
S-113 83 Stockholm
Sweden

Juergen Huber

University of Innsbruck ( email )

Universitätsstraße 15
Innsbruck, Innsbruck 6020
Austria

Michael Kirchler

University of Innsbruck ( email )

Innsbruck
Austria

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
249
Abstract Views
1,172
Rank
249,627
PlumX Metrics