Why Do Some Activities Recover Faster than Others after a Crisis?

Abstract

The study aims to identify the mechanisms explaining the speed and intensity of demand recovery following a crisis, using mobility as an example. Starting from a review of existing literature, a theoretical framework is developed and then applied to case studies (COVID-19 crisis in Switzerland, heatwaves, energy crises). Our framework highlights that crises influence mobility by affecting both activities and the number of trips, with varying impacts on different lifestyle groups depending on their resources. These insights are crucial for anticipating the effects of future crises, like energy shortages or heatwaves. Moreover, this highlights the importance of integrating activity and lifestyle typologies into transport demand models to better predict and manage potential disruptions in mobility demand and other sectors.

Keywords: Crisis, antifragility, resilience, recovery, activities, mobility, COVID